What actually wins · Great Britain
What actually wins at Newcastle
2,381 races, 13,147 runs and 199 meetings from 30 October 2025 to 29 October 2026. Recomputed from the results as they arrive; last racing counted 29 October 2026.
The short version
- There is no trap worth backing blind at Newcastle: every box wins within 15% of its even-chance share over 13,147 runs.
- Over 290m the draw matters most: trap 4 takes 25.0% of those races.
- Favourites win 38.1% of races at Newcastle at an average 2.5 and lose money at starting price (-6.8% on level stakes).
- A quick break wins 41.9% of the time; a slow one 8.1%.
- A Harrison is the trainer to follow at Newcastle: 314 winners from 1653 runs (19.0%).
- 100.0% of the results behind these figures have been confirmed by an independent second source.
Trap bias
Win rate by trap over every race in the window, against the even-chance share for a 5.6-runner field. A bar well above the dashed line is a draw the track favours; how far above is the size of the edge.
| Distance | Runs | T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 | T5 | T6 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 480m | 12,258 | 18.0% | 17.8% | 19.8% | 18.2% | 17.2% | 17.6% |
| 290m | 685 | 18.6% | 17.4% | 13.6% | 25.0% | 11.2% | 18.9% |
| 640m | 204 | 38.7% | 5.6% | 11.8% | 17.1% | 21.2% | 17.1% |
Favourites and prices
Strike rate and level-stakes return at starting price. A negative return means the market at Newcastle already prices that band tighter than it wins.
| Starting price | Runs | Wins | Strike rate | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| evens or shorter | 407 | 206 | 50.6% | -13.4% |
| 2/1 – 3/1 | 4,130 | 1,203 | 29.1% | -15.8% |
| 3/1 – 5/1 | 3,275 | 534 | 16.3% | -23.2% |
| 5/1 – 8/1 | 2,725 | 277 | 10.2% | -31.4% |
| 8/1 and bigger | 2,610 | 161 | 6.2% | -27.1% |
How races are run
From 13,123 stewards' comments parsed into how each dog broke, where it ran and whether it showed early pace.
Dogs noted for early pace won 24.5% of their races here; everyone else 17.7%.
| Quick away | 542 | 41.9% |
| Slowly away | 1,251 | 8.1% |
| Very slowly away | 89 | 1.1% |
| Missed the break | 106 | 0.0% |
| Rails | 1,420 | 18.2% |
| Rails to middle | 163 | 25.8% |
| Middle | 719 | 32.0% |
| Middle to wide | 235 | 33.6% |
| Wide | 1,496 | 20.3% |
Trainers to follow
| Trainer | W/R | SR | SP return |
|---|---|---|---|
| A Harrison | 314/1653 | 19.0% | -21.0% |
| J T Edgar | 278/1655 | 16.8% | -26.0% |
| J J Fenwick | 252/1468 | 17.2% | -26.7% |
| D Blackbird | 202/1217 | 16.6% | -28.5% |
| S Ray | 201/1207 | 16.7% | -20.6% |
| P Rutherford | 174/921 | 18.9% | -21.9% |
| S Caile | 116/595 | 19.5% | -27.7% |
| R J Buckton | 115/614 | 18.7% | -14.4% |
Dogs that win here
| Dog | W/R | Best |
|---|---|---|
| A BIT OF MEGAN | 13/42 | 28.82 |
| WHITEHILLS MAGIC | 12/35 | 17.50 |
| CHASING AINE | 11/26 | 28.96 |
| ROMEO ELITE | 11/44 | 28.80 |
| ALNWICK NIDGE | 10/25 | 17.44 |
| ZENITH MIKMACKER | 10/28 | 28.75 |
| CAHERMONE BEST | 10/28 | 28.66 |
| INCA TAILOR | 10/31 | 28.82 |
Track pars
The typical winning time per trip and the fastest recorded in the window. A dog whose best is near the par line is running to the standard of a winner here.
| Trip | Races | Median win | Fastest |
|---|---|---|---|
| 480m | 2,206 | 29.31s | 27.95s |
| 290m | 120 | 17.29s | 16.65s |
| 640m | 36 | 39.72s | 38.62s |
How this page is made
Every figure is counted from the results we hold for Newcastle over the last 365 days and recomputed as new results arrive, so the page is never older than the racing. Non-runners are excluded; trap shares are compared with an even chance for the average field size; returns are level stakes at the industry starting price. Running-style figures come from the stewards' comments parsed into fields. 100.0% of the results in this window have been confirmed by an independent second source — see our data quality page.
Today's card and recent results: Newcastle track page. Trap bias across every track: trap statistics.