Simulated / paper · for research & education · not betting advice

Denis ML

TrapStats OfficialHolds up
TrapStats Official·Published 21 Jun 2026·denis_ml
1 forks24 views
Honesty — read before you trust this curve
Holds up
  • · Settled at real SP/BSP only — never simulated prices
  • · Point-in-time data, no look-ahead
  • · Paper backtest at real SP — not realised cash, and past results never predict future returns
  • · Not financial advice. No real-money claims.

Confidence: Holds up — the signal survives a multiple-testing penalty.

Price source: BSP → SP1967 selections skipped — no real price
Holds upDSR 1.00 · PBO n/a

The signal survives a multiple-testing penalty — these numbers are reasonably trustworthy.

DSR1.00PBOn/aCLVn/a
Live paper stream+190u9,489 selections at official SP since 2026-03-19 · updated daily
Open in Lab to re-test live

Performance

Simulated ROI @ SP
-23.3%
Simulated ROI @ real SP
Net sim result
-63.3u
Selections
342
1967 skipped
Hit rate
14.3%
[11–18%]
Max drawdown
73.8%
Profit factor
0.72
Sharpe
-0.11

Equity curve

The equity curve isn't part of this strategy's frozen snapshot. Open it in the Lab to re-run the full curve.

The recipe

Exactly what this strategy backs, in plain English. Transparency is the point.

Back 1 qualifier per race, where sp_decimal ≥ 3.5, 0.25× Kelly, after 5% commission, from 2026-05-07 to 2026-06-20.

  • ▸Back 1 qualifier per race
  • ▸where sp_decimal ≥ 3.5
  • ▸0.25× Kelly
  • ▸after 5% commission
  • ▸from 2026-05-07 to 2026-06-20

As published vs today

Published snapshot
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Current snapshot
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Still locked to the current universe snapshot.