Every system, honestly

Every figure on this page is a simulated paper result at the real Starting Price — no cherry-picking. Losing systems and losing months stay on the board, because that honesty is the product.

Weekly numbers carry a ±95% confidence band: at ~500 bets a week, pure noise is worth ±7–8 percentage points. A green week can be luck, and a red month can hide a real edge.

Updated 2026-10-30 03:14 UTC

Simulated / paper · for research & education · not betting advice

Trap Bias

geometryactive

Dog drawn in a trap with extreme 180-day track-level bias (weighted z >= 2, >= 300 runs).

Bets settled: 897 / 934
Rolling-50 ROI: -14.4%
Weeks in profit: 0/10

Last 13 weeks

Week	Bets	ROI ±95%
2026-44	122	-13.8% ±33.4
2026-43	102	-27.5% ±32.8
2026-42	32	-42.3% ±75.6
2026-41	76	-57.6% ±26.1
2026-40	42	-19.6% ±64.4
2026-39	99	-42.7% ±29.3
2026-38	92	-24.9% ±32.3
2026-37	82	-13.4% ±35.5
2026-36	43	-39.3% ±53.3
2026-35	207	-11.5% ±24.8
2026-34	0	—
2026-33	0	—
2026-32	0	—

Time vs Par

clockactive

Fastest mean of last 3 times at today's track+distance relative to the 180-day median winning time; >= 0.30s clear of the field.

Bets settled: 212 / 233
Rolling-50 ROI: -41.6%
Weeks in profit: 1/10

Last 13 weeks

Week	Bets	ROI ±95%
2026-44	26	-78.1% ±20.3
2026-43	14	+41.1% ±133.7
2026-42	21	-33.4% ±57.8
2026-41	20	-66.4% ±30.4
2026-40	7	—
2026-39	18	-50.2% ±41.2
2026-38	15	-78.9% ±28.6
2026-37	25	-35.0% ±55.7
2026-36	22	-16.3% ±41.3
2026-35	44	-15.6% ±43.6
2026-34	0	—
2026-33	0	—
2026-32	0	—

Grade Dropper

classactive

Last run was in a higher class than today's grade.

Bets settled: 1,160 / 1,246
Rolling-50 ROI: -22.1%
Weeks in profit: 1/10

Last 13 weeks

Week	Bets	ROI ±95%
2026-44	201	-38.3% ±19.9
2026-43	127	-27.0% ±34.3
2026-42	50	-10.8% ±53.4
2026-41	93	-42.4% ±27.8
2026-40	89	-49.6% ±28.6
2026-39	133	+2.8% ±53.0
2026-38	29	-32.8% ±60.4
2026-37	103	-32.2% ±30.1
2026-36	89	-17.2% ±37.9
2026-35	246	-35.6% ±20.8
2026-34	0	—
2026-33	0	—
2026-32	0	—

Rest + Weight

physiologyactive

5-9 days rest and >= +0.8kg weight gain between the last two weighed runs; single qualifier per race.

Bets settled: 274 / 284
Rolling-50 ROI: -53.0%
Weeks in profit: 0/10

Last 13 weeks

Week	Bets	ROI ±95%
2026-44	62	-54.8% ±33.9
2026-43	19	-40.1% ±54.4
2026-42	10	-100.0% ±0.0
2026-41	18	-27.8% ±141.6
2026-40	37	-34.5% ±57.2
2026-39	3	—
2026-38	16	-34.4% ±75.9
2026-37	36	-62.2% ±36.4
2026-36	20	-38.8% ±66.4
2026-35	53	-22.2% ±48.0
2026-34	0	—
2026-33	0	—
2026-32	0	—

Early Pace

paceactive

Best average first-bend position over last 3 runs (avg <= 1.8, >= 0.5 clear of the field).

Bets settled: 1,051 / 1,103
Rolling-50 ROI: -74.0%
Weeks in profit: 0/10

Last 13 weeks

Week	Bets	ROI ±95%
2026-44	216	-31.6% ±22.8
2026-43	70	-36.2% ±36.1
2026-42	47	-17.4% ±50.5
2026-41	106	-50.4% ±24.4
2026-40	144	-25.4% ±35.1
2026-39	15	-46.1% ±72.2
2026-38	61	-51.4% ±33.1
2026-37	98	-29.2% ±33.8
2026-36	75	-33.9% ±36.0
2026-35	219	-35.9% ±22.9
2026-34	0	—
2026-33	0	—
2026-32	0	—

Distance Specialist

distanceactive

>= 5 career runs at today's exact distance, win rate >= 25% and >= 2x the dog's win rate elsewhere.

Bets settled: 1,983 / 2,078
Rolling-50 ROI: -24.5%
Weeks in profit: 0/10

Last 13 weeks

Week	Bets	ROI ±95%
2026-44	314	-31.7% ±18.9
2026-43	132	-11.0% ±32.7
2026-42	165	-13.7% ±27.6
2026-41	204	-19.6% ±23.4
2026-40	148	-31.4% ±29.3
2026-39	212	-29.9% ±25.3
2026-38	181	-14.3% ±35.3
2026-37	127	-0.5% ±48.1
2026-36	127	-31.0% ±34.0
2026-35	373	-30.0% ±17.7
2026-34	0	—
2026-33	0	—
2026-32	0	—

Denis Speed

form-time (legacy)legacypaused by kill-switch

Denis Speed model tracker, paper bets settled at SP.

Bets settled: 8,507 / 9,362
Rolling-50 ROI: -51.4%
Weeks in profit: 2/13

Last 13 weeks

Week	Bets	ROI ±95%
2026-44	95	-56.5% ±19.9
2026-43	22	-33.1% ±54.2
2026-42	16	-5.5% ±63.0
2026-41	25	-4.8% ±78.1
2026-40	4	—
2026-39	9	—
2026-38	21	-14.1% ±72.5
2026-37	31	-4.9% ±50.9
2026-36	21	-71.4% ±56.0
2026-35	140	-17.1% ±28.1
2026-34	539	+1.3% ±16.8
2026-33	659	-7.2% ±13.2
2026-32	794	-13.5% ±12.3

Denis v2

form-time (legacy)legacypaused by kill-switch

Denis v2 model tracker, paper bets settled at SP.

Bets settled: 9,252 / 10,237
Rolling-50 ROI: -45.5%
Weeks in profit: 1/13

Last 13 weeks

Week	Bets	ROI ±95%
2026-44	250	-27.8% ±17.0
2026-43	19	-6.6% ±66.7
2026-42	11	-57.6% ±56.8
2026-41	21	-33.2% ±54.3
2026-40	24	+1.1% ±69.4
2026-39	9	—
2026-38	25	-58.0% ±39.4
2026-37	25	-53.5% ±52.9
2026-36	34	-3.1% ±54.0
2026-35	272	-6.2% ±19.7
2026-34	640	-11.2% ±13.2
2026-33	663	-0.0% ±13.9
2026-32	779	-10.5% ±12.8

Fastest Time

form-time (legacy)legacypaused by kill-switch

Fastest recent time at the distance (rank 1), paper bets settled at SP.

Bets settled: 6,619 / 7,237
Rolling-50 ROI: -18.7%
Weeks in profit: 3/13

Last 13 weeks

Week	Bets	ROI ±95%
2026-44	105	-13.1% ±36.7
2026-43	5	—
2026-42	8	—
2026-41	41	-62.5% ±30.1
2026-40	12	+27.1% ±111.1
2026-39	22	+42.0% ±113.3
2026-38	27	-74.1% ±28.8
2026-37	24	-53.3% ±45.0
2026-36	31	+2.4% ±63.1
2026-35	127	-5.0% ±31.8
2026-34	401	-10.9% ±17.0
2026-33	455	-5.0% ±20.4
2026-32	543	-27.7% ±13.3

Papa Bend

form-time (legacy)legacyactive

Bend-improver selections at the main threshold, scored at SP. The live tracker stopped on 2026-06-14; selections are still published.

Bets settled: 6,131 / 7,190
Rolling-50 ROI: -29.5%
Weeks in profit: 0/13

Last 13 weeks

Week	Bets	ROI ±95%
2026-44	119	-2.5% ±37.1
2026-43	255	-33.2% ±20.2
2026-42	256	-21.6% ±22.6
2026-41	261	-36.3% ±17.9
2026-40	260	-11.7% ±21.5
2026-39	268	-3.0% ±41.3
2026-38	244	-35.5% ±17.5
2026-37	239	-29.1% ±20.9
2026-36	252	-50.3% ±16.2
2026-35	212	-24.8% ±23.6
2026-34	225	-20.4% ±22.9
2026-33	200	-29.1% ±19.4
2026-32	210	-16.5% ±23.6

Denis v1

form-time (legacy)legacydead

Legacy Denis ensemble EV tracker (no new bets since 2026-06-14).

Bets settled: 807 / 1,049
Rolling-50 ROI: -17.1%
Weeks in profit: —

Last 13 weeks

Week	Bets	ROI ±95%	ROI ±95%
2026-44	0	—
2026-43	0	—
2026-42	0	—
2026-41	0	—
2026-40	0	—
2026-39	0	—
2026-38	0	—
2026-37	0	—
2026-36	0	—
2026-35	0	—
2026-34	0	—
2026-33	0	—
2026-32	0	—

What the families mean

geometry: Trap draw, track shape and running lines
clock: Raw sectional and finish times
class: Grade movement and class relief
physiology: Age, weight, seasons and recovery
pace: Early pace and break patterns
distance: Distance switches and stamina fit
form: Recent form cycles and streaks
bend: First-bend trouble and crowding
market: Price moves and market signals