Simulated / paper · for research & education · not betting advice

Papa Bend (t≥1)

TrapStats OfficialLow confidence
TrapStats Official·Published 21 Jun 2026·papa_bend·Locked to universe snapshot v1781992440
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Honesty — read before you trust this curve
Low confidence
  • · Settled at real SP/BSP only — never simulated prices
  • · Point-in-time data, no look-ahead
  • · Paper backtest at real SP — not realised cash, and past results never predict future returns
  • · Not financial advice. No real-money claims.

Confidence: Low confidence — too small a sample to be statistically meaningful.

Snapshot v1781992440Price source: BSP → SP258 selections skipped — no real price100% post-hoc prices
Holds upDSR 1.00 · PBO n/a

The signal survives a multiple-testing penalty — these numbers are reasonably trustworthy.

DSR1.00PBOn/aCLVn/a
Live paper stream-17u93 selections at official SP since 2026-06-02 · updated daily
Open in Lab to re-test live

Performance

Simulated ROI @ SP
-84.7%
Simulated ROI @ real SP
Net sim result
-100.0u
Selections
118
258 skipped
Hit rate
5.1%
[2–11%]
Max drawdown
100.0%
Profit factor
0.11
Sharpe
-1.27

Equity curve

The equity curve isn't part of this strategy's frozen snapshot. Open it in the Lab to re-run the full curve.

The recipe

Exactly what this strategy backs, in plain English. Transparency is the point.

Back the highest 1 by prev_bend1_minus_finish per race, where prev_bend1_minus_finish ≥ 1, flat 1u, after 5% commission.

  • ▸Back the highest 1 by prev_bend1_minus_finish per race
  • ▸where prev_bend1_minus_finish ≥ 1
  • ▸flat 1u
  • ▸after 5% commission

As published vs today

Published snapshot
v1781992440
Current snapshot
v—

Still locked to the current universe snapshot.