What actually wins · Great Britain

What actually wins at Nottingham

1,527 races, 8,337 runs and 127 meetings from 14 September 2025 to 11 September 2026. Recomputed from the results as they arrive; last racing counted 11 September 2026.

The short version

  • Trap 2 is the place to be at Nottingham: it wins 21.6% of races against an even-chance 18.0%, a 20% edge over 1,490 runs.
  • Over 500m the draw matters most: trap 2 takes 21.6% of those races.
  • Over 305m the draw matters most: trap 4 takes 21.6% of those races.
  • Favourites win 39.2% of races at Nottingham at an average 2.43 and lose money at starting price (-8.8% on level stakes).
  • Early pace is decisive: dogs the stewards note as showing early pace win 48.0% of the time here, against 14.3% for the rest.
  • J Llewellin is the trainer to follow at Nottingham: 174 winners from 989 runs (17.6%).
  • 99.9% of the results behind these figures have been confirmed by an independent second source.

Trap bias

Win rate by trap over every race in the window, against the even-chance share for a 5.5-runner field. A bar well above the dashed line is a draw the track favours; how far above is the size of the edge.

17.7%Trap 121.6%Trap 219.3%Trap 317.4%Trap 417.2%Trap 516.7%Trap 6even chance 18%
DistanceRunsT1T2T3T4T5T6
500m6,79418.3%21.6%19.1%16.6%17.7%16.4%
305m1,25615.1%19.7%21.1%21.6%13.7%19.3%
480m24516.3%27.7%20.0%20.9%20.5%9.1%
680m2620.0%40.0%0.0%0.0%20.0%50.0%

Favourites and prices

Strike rate and level-stakes return at starting price. A negative return means the market at Nottingham already prices that band tighter than it wins.

Favourite wins
39.2%
1,526 races with SP
Average fav price
2.43
decimal
Fav return at SP
-8.8%
level stakes
Starting priceRunsWinsStrike rateReturn
evens or shorter37518950.4%-18.1%
2/1 – 3/12,55072728.5%-17.3%
3/1 – 5/11,96332616.6%-22.6%
5/1 – 8/11,66820112.1%-18.0%
8/1 and bigger1,778905.1%-34.9%

How races are run

From 8,220 stewards' comments parsed into how each dog broke, where it ran and whether it showed early pace.

Early pace

Dogs noted for early pace won 48.0% of their races here; everyone else 14.3%.

Quick away5457.4%
Slowly away1,1325.6%
Very slowly away140.0%
Running line
Rails79124.7%
Rails to middle82031.7%
Middle1,00532.0%
Middle to wide19825.8%
Wide60824.5%

Trainers to follow

TrainerW/RSRSP return
J Llewellin174/98917.6%-17.9%
E O Driver146/63922.8%-9.4%
J Gray126/52524.0%-8.9%
B Denby120/59120.3%-21.0%
A S Mcpherson112/71915.6%-25.0%
J Daly103/55018.7%-21.2%
K Wilton99/45122.0%-2.5%
M T Munslow78/36621.3%-20.8%

Dogs that win here

DogW/RBest
SWIFT KIPPER15/3428.32
LEELAD11/3417.85
SAMBAR DREAM10/2329.82
LEMON SHIRLEY10/2530.39
NOIRS FLY10/3230.04
THE OTHER KODI9/1128.47
THURLESBEG TONTO9/3830.22
SKEARD DAISY MAY8/1328.17

Track pars

The typical winning time per trip and the fastest recorded in the window. A dog whose best is near the par line is running to the standard of a winner here.

TripRacesMedian winFastest
500m1,23830.34s28.93s
305m22818.09s17.47s
480m4728.66s28.16s

How this page is made

Every figure is counted from the results we hold for Nottingham over the last 365 days and recomputed as new results arrive, so the page is never older than the racing. Non-runners are excluded; trap shares are compared with an even chance for the average field size; returns are level stakes at the industry starting price. Running-style figures come from the stewards' comments parsed into fields. 99.9% of the results in this window have been confirmed by an independent second source — see our data quality page.

Today's card and recent results: Nottingham track page. Trap bias across every track: trap statistics.